The Auto Market Brief – Bonus

In this Episode

Consumer sentiment remains one of the most watched economic indicators, but it is only one piece of the consumer story.

In this episode of The Auto Market Brief, host Erin Keating is joined by Kayla Bruun, Head of Economic Analysis at Morning Consult, to examine why sentiment alone does not tell the complete consumer story. They compare Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment with its Consumer Health Index, which combines personal financial sentiment with high-frequency labor-market data to provide a more grounded signal of real-time demand.

Key Takeaways:

Looking Beyond Consumer Sentiment: Consumer sentiment measures continue to receive significant attention from economists, investors, and business leaders, but Erin and Kayla explain why sentiment alone rarely tells the complete story. The conversation explores how attitudes, financial health, labor-market conditions, and real-world spending behavior can move on different timelines. Using Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Health Index as examples, they discuss why broader measures of consumer health often provide a clearer view of underlying demand than sentiment headlines alone.

A Consumer Economy Moving at Different Speeds: The conversation examines the continued divide between income groups and how those differences are shaping spending patterns. While higher-income households have experienced sharper declines in sentiment, they have continued supporting spending in categories such as travel and experiences, even as many become more price conscious and seek savings on everyday purchases. The episode also explores the evolving role of middle-income consumers and recent improvements among certain younger and lower-income segments.

What Price Responses Reveal About Vehicle Demand: Kayla introduces Morning Consult’s new price-response indicators, which track whether consumers absorb higher prices, walk away from purchases, or trade down to lower-cost alternatives. For automotive leaders, the data reveals continued vehicle consideration despite rising price sensitivity and greater evidence of trading down. The discussion highlights how replacement demand, affordability pressures, and shifts between new- and used-vehicle purchases may influence automotive demand in the months ahead.

The episode also covers gas prices, inflation, consumer savings, labor-force participation, age-related spending trends, AI-related workplace concerns, vehicle affordability, new- and used-vehicle demand signals, and the indicators industry leaders should monitor over the next six to twelve months.

00:00 Intro

00:25 Why consumer sentiment is not the whole story

02:01 How the Consumer Sentiment Index works

03:37 Connecting consumer health, employment, and spending

05:00 Sentiment declines versus gradual consumer weakening

06:41 The K-shaped economy and income differences

08:32 How consumers respond to higher prices

11:17 What middle-income consumers are doing

12:26 Consumer health across age groups

15:02 Understanding price-response indicators

18:26 Price sensitivity and vehicle consideration

20:47 Early demand signals for new and used vehicles

21:47 The six-to-twelve-month consumer outlook

23:05 Why labor-force participation matters

23:55 Gas prices, energy costs, and sentiment

26:38 Outro