The Auto Market Brief – Ep. #16

In this Episode

What happens when consumer spending slows further, trade policy remains uncertain, and automakers begin reassessing where vehicles are built?

In this episode of The Auto Market Brief, host Erin Keating and Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb examine the latest economic indicators, including new Q2 GDP readings, personal income data, consumer spending, inflation, and used-vehicle market activity. While income growth remains positive and vehicle demand continues to show resilience, signs of softer consumer spending have raised new questions about the economic outlook.

Key Takeaways

Consumer spending slows for a second consecutive month:
Personal income growth remained solid, but spending growth moderated again, highlighting the ongoing pressure many consumers face as affordability challenges persist. The discussion explores what these trends may signal for the broader economy and automotive demand.

Tariff uncertainty continues to influence business decisions:
As discussions around Canadian imports, USMCA, and future trade policy continue, automakers are watching closely. The conversation explores why product and production strategy may matter as much as the tariffs themselves when companies make long-term investment and production decisions.

Manufacturers are rethinking production strategies:
From Honda and Nissan to Lincoln, Mercedes-Benz, and Jaguar Land Rover, several manufacturers are making decisions that reflect changing views on production, localization, capacity planning, and supply chain resilience.

The episode also covers inflation, Jackson Hole Symposium expectations, Manheim Market Report trends, used-vehicle demand, August sales expectations, and the broader forces shaping today’s automotive market.

00:00 Intro

01:27 Q2 GDP Holds Steady

02:29 PCE Inflation Runs Hotter Than Expected

04:22 Economic Factors Impacting the Market

07:20 Updates on the Used Market and Manheim Values

10:00 Economic Updates and Expectations for Jackson Hole

11:47 Market Expectations and the Road Ahead

12:53 The Key Question: Are Tariffs Impacting Automaker Behavior?

13:30 Proposed Canadian Import Tariffs

05:23 Honda’s North American Capacity and USMCA Uncertainty

16:19 Nissan Moves Rogue Production to the U.S.

17:35 JLR’s Potential Stellantis Partnership

18:30 Consumers Keep Showing Up Amid Economic Uncertainty

19:03 Expectations for August Vehicle Sales

20:06 Conclusions on Automaker Shifts and Tariff Impacts

21:14 Outro