Auto Market Weekly Summary

Key Highlights:

• Total home sales declined in March and were down year over year; existing homes decreased, while new home sales increased.
• The labor market showed mixed trends in jobless claims, with some improvements despite recent disruptions.
• Consumer sentiment measures show declining confidence and concerns about inflation and buying conditions.

Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales saw a significant decline in March, reaching levels comparable to the Great Recession.

• Sales decreased by 5.9%, which was worse than the 3.1% decrease expected.
• The existing home sales seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.02 million was down 2.4% from a year ago and at the slowest pace since last September.
• Sales were down for the month in every region, with the West experiencing the largest decline at 9.4% and down the least in the Northeast at 2%.
• Inventory increased by 8.1% to 1.33 million units, up 19.8% year over year.
• The months’ supply of homes for sales increased to 4 months, up from 3.2 months a year ago, but is still considered very tight.
• The median sales price increased to $403,700, up 2.7% year over year.

New Home Sales

New home sales showed positive growth in March, with February’s sales being revised higher.

• New home sales at an annualized pace of 724,000 were up 7.4% month over month and up 6.0% year over year.
• Sales varied by region, with the Northeast seeing a 22.2% decrease for the month, while the South experienced a 13.6% increase.
• On a year-over-year basis, sales were down 33.3% in the Northeast but up 22.3% in the South.
• New home inventory increased 0.6% month over month and was up 7.9% year over year.
• The supply of new homes declined to 8.3 months from 8.9 months in February, which is considered elevated.

Jobless Claims

We have seen claims increase in recent weeks as government cuts impacted the data, but all measures are down from recent peaks.

• Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 to 222,000 for the week ending April 19.
• This figure was 9,900 more than in 2020 before the pandemic began, but 37,000 lower than the fall peak caused by the hurricanes.
• Non-seasonally adjusted initial claims decreased by 11,200 and were 35,400 lower than they were before the pandemic.
• Continuing claims, representing people who previously filed and remain on traditional unemployment compensation, decreased by 37,000 to 1.84 million as of April 12.
• This level of continuing claims was 88,000 more than it was prior to the pandemic, but 52,000 less than the peak in March when Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts were occurring.
• The broadest measure of continuing claims decreased by 41,500 to 1.97 million in the latest data, which lags the traditional number and is not seasonally adjusted.
• This total measure is down 178,600 over the last four weeks to the lowest level yet this year and is 129,300 lower than the pre-pandemic level.
• The labor market deteriorated in 2024, with claims increasing and lasting longer.
• After disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the fall, conditions have improved despite some bumpiness in January caused by the wildfires in California.

Consumer Sentiment

The consumer sentiment indexes reflect a decline in confidence and concerns about inflation and buying conditions.

• The Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined 8.4% in April to 52.2. Still, it was higher than expected and marked a smaller decline than the earlier reading at the beginning of the month.
• With the final monthly decline, the index is down 32% year over year to the lowest level since July 2022.
• The underlying views of current conditions and future expectations both declined, with expectations falling the most.
• Expectations for inflation in one year increased to 6.5% from 5.0% in March, but the earlier April reading was even higher at 6.7%.
• Expectations for inflation in five years increased to 4.4% from 4.1% and were unchanged from the earlier April reading.
• Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined to the lowest level since September 2022 as views of prices deteriorated, but views of interest rates improved slightly.
• The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult has declined 3.2% so far in April as of April 25, leaving it down 0.7% year over year.
• The average price of unleaded gasoline has decreased 1.2% so far in April as of Thursday to $3.16 per gallon, which was down 14% year over year.
• Gas prices are up 3.3% year to date as of April 24.

Jonathan Smoke

Chief Economist

Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.