Auto Market Weekly Summary

Key Highlights:

• New light-vehicle sales fell 4.2% year over year in June, but the first half ended with a 4% gain over last year.
• The retail SAAR slipped to 12.9 million in June, down from May’s 13.4 million pace, reflecting a cooling in consumer demand following the tariff-driven surge earlier this year.
• Auto dealer employment edged up by 600 jobs in June, but overall employment in the sector remains 1% below pre-pandemic levels, signaling a cautious labor recovery.

Employment

The employment report for June was better than expected. The report did not indicate any problems with mounting job losses, but labor force participation and wage growth were both down, indicating that workers do not have much bargaining power.

• The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 106,000.
• Revisions to April and May added a net 16,000 jobs.
• Private sector employment rose by 74,000, while government added 73,000 jobs – largely from state and local education.
• Federal government employment declined by 7,000, bringing total losses since January to 62,000.
• Manufacturing lost 7,000 jobs for the second consecutive month.
• Auto dealer employment increased by 600 jobs but remains 1.0% below pre-pandemic levels.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, beating expectations for an increase to 4.3%.
• Labor force participation declined to 62.3%, down 1.0 percentage point from pre-pandemic levels, representing 2.7 million fewer workers.
• Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year.
• The underemployment rate declined to 7.7%, still 0.7 points above February 2020.
• The three-month moving average of job gains rose to 150,000, below the 2019 average but still consistent with full employment, given slower labor force growth.
• The apparent stability in job growth may be a seasonal mirage due to public education hiring patterns, and further slowing is likely as businesses face margin pressure from tariffs.

New-Vehicle Sales

The new-vehicle seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) declined in June, just as we expected, as the market comes down from the tariff-announcement-induced frenzy and now deals with declining affordability and tariff-end-game uncertainty.

• New light-vehicle sales fell 4.2% year over year in June, impacted by two fewer selling days compared to June 2024.
• Sales volume dropped 14.2% month over month, also affected by three fewer selling days than May.
• The SAAR declined 1.7% to 15.3 million, down from May’s 15.6 million but up from 15.0 million a year ago.
• Fleet sales were mixed: rental fleet sales rose 2.5% year over year, while commercial and government fleet sales declined 9.5% and 10.1%, respectively.
• Combined fleet sales were down 3.8% year over year.
• Retail sales, including estimated fleet deliveries to dealers and manufacturers, were down 3.0% year over year.
• The retail SAAR was estimated at 12.9 million, up from 12.2 million last year but down from May’s 13.4 million.
• Fleet share declined to 17.6%, down from 18.6% a year ago.

Jonathan Smoke

Chief Economist

Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.