We are three full weeks into 2020, the year of wild cards. Concern about Iran has now been replaced by the coronavirus spreading from China. While the impeachment trial continued here, the U.K. cleared the final legal hurdle for Brexit to happen Friday, and, while in Davos, President Trump threatened the EU with tariffs on autos … Continued
Two full weeks into January, most of the latest data reflects key trends in December. Inflation eats into wages: Inflation increased modestly in December, primarily from higher energy prices and from big increases in health care insurance. Average weekly earnings did not see real growth for the first time in 32 months as a result … Continued
Job growth is slowing, wage gains are not accelerating, and consumers are pulling back on spending as evidenced by disappointing December car sales. Job creation slows: December saw job creation slow down relative to the much bigger gain in November. Even with the smaller gain, both the headline and the underemployment rates are now at … Continued
We ended 2019 with mostly positive data. Home sales continue to be strong as both new home sales and pending home sales increased in November. But news starting 2020 has been less so. Wary consumers: Consumer confidence failed to see improvement in December, but it isn’t declining either. The main concern is that consumers do … Continued
Economic growth is slowing, but the consumer, responsible for 90% of this year’s growth, continues to spend, and November saw an upward trend in spending fueled by an upward trend in income growth. Inflation remains contained and well below the Fed’s target, which reinforces that rate policy is likely to remain stable. Housing positive: Housing … Continued
Tax refunds drive the demand that makes the spring season the most important season of the year for the used-vehicle market. In 2020, we expect the market to follow the same weekly pattern as the 2018 and 2019 markets. Week 9 is likely to see a 20-30% jump in used retail sales. The tax refund … Continued
While we saw progress on trade agreements, new economic data last week highlight concerns about the bedrock of the U.S. economy –the consumer. Trade agreements closer: Last week saw progress on trade uncertainty as a supplementary “protocol” was agreed to by the U.S., Mexico and Canada to get the changes Democrats wanted to see in the … Continued
The Fed officially left short-term rate policy unchanged at the conclusion of their December meeting today, which was the last meeting in 2019. After three rate cuts this year, the Fed seems set on a steady course in 2020 barring a major change in the economy. The Fed’s official statement acknowledged that economic growth is … Continued
The first week of December delivered strong readings related to the job market, consumer sentiment and retail vehicle sales. Jobs, jobs, jobs: November saw the second-best number of jobs created for the year and dramatically surprised to the upside. The unemployment rate is back down to 3.5%, which is a 50-year low. Wage gains have been … Continued
The past week failed to deliver clarity on a number of topics that we had been waiting for while we got good news on housing and concerning news on credit. Global trade uncertainty: The week did not deliver clarity on a Phase 1 trade deal with China or official movement or postponement of new tariffs … Continued