The release of new data was limited last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. What news there was represented a mixed bag. New home sales were stronger than expected. Jobless claims increased. Consumer sentiment showed mixed views. The Fed released not surprising notes from its November meeting. New Home Sales and Inventory Deliver Surprising Increases … Continued

Retail sales growth accelerated in October and was stronger than expected. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were up slightly from a year ago. Residential construction slowed again in October, with single-family activity driving much of the decline. Existing home sales declined in October for the ninth straight month. Initial jobless claims declined in the latest … Continued

Financial markets shifted to the positive last week, with weaker-than-expected inflation data pointing to an eventual end to rate increases. However, the Fed will likely raise rates by 50 basis points (BPs) in December as planned unless something more dramatic changes between now and December 14. We get November employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) … Continued

The October employment report saw a modest slowing in job creation, along with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a modest slowing in wage growth. Still, the labor market remains strong and is a key reason why the Fed believes it is too soon to pause on rate increases. The Fed increased the … Continued

As expected, the Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today, which was the fourth straight jumbo increase this year. The biggest news from the Fed’s move was the indication that future increases may be smaller and slower to come. The Fed has now moved the target … Continued

Last week featured mixed news with enough strength in the economy and consumer spending to result in more rate increases and communication of more increases to come from the Fed this week. Check back on Smoke on Cars for additional commentary after the announcement on Wednesday, November 2. The third quarter saw a strong rebound … Continued

Residential construction trends in September were mixed, but single-family housing activity is clearly declining. Existing home sales fell in September for the eighth straight month. More declines can be expected as demand wanes and supply remains very limited, unlike the 2008 downturn. Initial jobless claims declined in the latest week, and jobless claims overall remain … Continued