The number of daily new COVID-19 cases is increasing again, due to lax behavior over the Labor Day holiday weekend, much like we saw after Memorial Day. Momentum in several parts of the economy appears to be stalling. Retail sales barely rise: Retail sales barely increased in aggregate in August, and the gain was assisted … Continued

Today’s Fed announcement was not about current rate levels, which remain near zero, but about expectations for the economy, guidance on rates long term, and elaboration on what it will take to shift away from low rates when the time comes. A key phrase in their announcement was “…the Committee will aim to achieve inflation … Continued

The trends for COVID-19 and consumer sentiment are encouraging, but the economy and the jobs recovery seem to have lost momentum from a stronger bounce back this spring and summer. The peak demand phase in the used car market seems to be behind us as August sales softened and prices are starting to come down. … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was seven weeks ago. Hospitalizations and deaths have been declining as well. However, outbreaks on college campuses caused daily cases to stop declining last week. The jobs recovery continues, but the pace of recovery is slowing as each week we lose jobs as well as see recovered jobs. … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was six weeks ago, and now hospitalizations and deaths are in decline as well. The decline has helped consumer sentiment improve modestly. Home sales are strong with low mortgage rates and favorable demographics. The jobs recovery continues, but the pace of recovery is slow and slowing as each … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was five weeks ago, and now hospitalizations and deaths are declining as well. The jobs recovery continues, but the country still has 14.8 million on unemployment benefits. Consumer sentiment has also been slowly improving for the last three weeks. New construction and existing home sales are now up … Continued