Auto Market Weekly Summary

Key Highlights

• August saw 142,000 jobs created, below the expected 165,000, with significant revisions to prior months.
• The headline unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, but the underemployment rate increased to 7.9%.
• New light-vehicle sales were up 7.6% year over year, but fleet sales declined significantly.

August Job Growth

In August, job growth reaccelerated modestly but fell short of expectations, reflecting a mixed performance across various sectors.

• Job growth in August reaccelerated modestly but was weaker than expected, with 142,000 jobs created versus the expected 165,000.
• The private sector created 118,000 jobs, while the government added 24,000.
• Manufacturing shed 24,000 jobs, while services produced 108,000 new jobs.
• Education and health care had the largest gain in the private sector with 47,000 jobs created.
• Auto dealers added 400 jobs, which left employment at dealers down 4,500 or 0.3% below the February 2020 level.

Revisions and Trends

Recent revisions to job numbers and broader trends highlight a more nuanced picture of the labor market’s recovery.

• The prior two months’ job numbers were revised down, resulting in a net decline of 86,000 fewer jobs than originally estimated.
• Total payrolls now exceed February 2020 payrolls by 6.5 million or 4.2%.
• The three-month moving average of new jobs declined to 116,000, which is 50,000 below the 2019 average.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that job growth in the 12 months ending March 2024 was overstated by 818,000.

Unemployment and Participation Rates

The unemployment and labor force participation rates provide insight into the current state of the labor market and its ongoing challenges.

• The headline unemployment rate declined to 4.2% from 4.3%.
• The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from before the pandemic.
• The underemployment rate increased to 7.9%, 0.9 percentage points above February 2020 levels.

Earnings and Layoffs

Changes in earnings growth and layoff rates offer a deeper understanding of the labor market dynamics in August.

• Monthly average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 0.4% from 0.2% in July.
• Year-over-year earnings growth increased to 3.8% from 3.6% in July.
• The number of job losers is up in 2024, driven by a higher layoff pace compared to 2019, but August saw that pace slow.
• Jobless claims declined in August, and the hiring rate improved.

New Light-Vehicle Sales

August saw a notable increase in new light-vehicle sales, marking a significant month-over-month improvement.

• New light-vehicle sales were up 7.6% year-over-year in August.
• By volume, new-vehicle sales were up 11.2% month-over-month to the highest volume since March.
• The August SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) was 15.1 million, down 1.1% from last year and 4.5% from July.

Fleet Sales

Sales into fleet categories experienced a decline, contrasting with the overall market trends.

• Sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets were down 21.4% year-over-year.
• Retail sales were estimated to be up 7.6% from last year, with an estimated retail SAAR of 12.7 million.

Vehicle Pricing

Vehicle pricing trends in August reveal shifts in transaction prices, manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), and manufacturer incentives. [Check back in the Newsroom tomorrow for the Kelley Blue Book average transaction price report.]

• The average transaction price of a new vehicle in August declined 0.6% from July to $47,870.
• The average price relative to the average MSRP was steady at 96.9%.
• The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 1.9% in August to $3,447, up 46% year over year.

Jonathan Smoke

Chief Economist

Jonathan Smoke leads Cox Automotive’s economic and industry insights team, which tracks key metrics and trends impacting both the wholesale and retail markets for vehicles informed by the proprietary data from the company’s businesses and platforms. For 28 years, Smoke has focused on translating data and trends into relevant actionable insights for the industries that represent the biggest purchases that consumers make in their lifetimes: real estate and automotive. Smoke joined Cox Automotive in 2017.