Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Feb. 4

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Feb. 4, 2025

Key Highlights

• Consumer spending has shown strong year-over-year growth in three of the last five weeks.
• New retail vehicle sales are running 10% above the pace of last year.
• Average auto loan rates have increased, with used rates at 13.93% and new rates at 9.26%.

Consumer Spending Trends

Consumer spending has seen robust growth to start 2025, with significant year-over-year increases in three of the last five weeks.

• Total consumer spending has been particularly strong, translating into higher demand for vehicles.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment, however, has experienced its worst week in almost a year, down 1.8% so far this year.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail vehicle sales have followed typical patterns in early 2025, with new sales showing a notable increase.

• New retail sales are running 10% above the pace of last year, regaining strength seen at the end of 2024.
• Used retail vehicle market transactions have been moving higher, up almost 5% over the week and 15% against 2024 levels.

Auto Loan Rates

Average auto loan rates have risen from multi-year lows in December, with significant increases noted in January.

• The average used auto loan rate is now 13.93%, while the new auto loan rate stands at 9.26%.
• Low-interest rate deals have declined sharply since the end of 2024, impacting financing options for consumers.

Supply Trends

New and used vehicle supply trends are mixed, with new supply rising and used supply tightening.

• New inventory has increased substantially over the last several years but remains down 20% compared to 2019.
• Used inventory has fallen, with days’ supply now sitting at 46.6 days, down 17.2% year over year.

Price Trends

• Used-vehicle prices are showing divergent trends in early February.
• Retail prices are higher by 0.5% compared to the same week last year, while wholesale values are up 1.6%.
• The average retail price for model year 2022 vehicles fell by 0.4% in the latest week, while wholesale prices increased by 0.2%.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

Leading indicators from Cox Automotive were mixed.

• Leads: Leads are up year over year so far in February on Autotrader but are down on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to January on both sites.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles are down year over year so far in February on websites hosted by Dealer.com, and new leads are down for the month compared to January, but used leads are up. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 8% year over year last week with the trend in applications per dealer improving week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved but remained weak last week, as completed appointments were down 12% year over year.