Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. In this biweekly video, he covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – June 25, 2024

The Cox Automotive Auto Market Report for June 25, 2024, highlights a mixed landscape. While consumer spending continues to show signs of caution, new-vehicle sales are performing well. However, used-vehicle sales are flat. Financing trends reveal higher borrowing costs, but the availability of some low APR loans remains. Supply chain dynamics indicate fluctuating inventory levels, and pricing trends show a continued decline in used-vehicle prices. Lastly, Cox Automotive’s leading indicators are more negative in late June, with some impact evident from the CDK outages.

Consumer Spending Slowing in May

Consumer spending saw a decrease in May with growth rates falling by 10% in restaurants and 3% in retail year to date. The year-over-year change in total spending presents a clear view of this downturn, signaling potential challenges in the national economic landscape.

• Statistics indicate a 10% drop in restaurant spending.
• Retail spending has also fallen by 3% year to date.

National Continuing Unemployment Claims

Continuing claims stood at 1.83 million at a national level. This statistic provides valuable insight on the country’s employment situation.

Rising Consumer Sentiment in June

Interestingly, consumer sentiment has been trending upwards in June. The Index of Consumer Sentiment from Morning Consult reported a 1.1% increase month over month, while sentiment growth registered at 0.4% week over week.

Retail Vehicle Sales Estimates

The auto market demonstrated an interesting dynamic. New-vehicle sales rose by 2% over the last week and are up by 8% year over year, while used sales remained flat week over week but also rose by 8% year over year.

• New sales have seen a 2% weekly rise, and an 8% yearly growth.
• Used sales remained consistent week over week but matched the 8% increase year over year.

Low APR Financing

The automotive finance market has experienced interesting shifts recently. Rates below 3% have increased against 2023, and climbed from May levels, while 0% financing remains very low.

Auto Loan Rates in 2024

Average Auto Loan Rates Are Higher in 2024. In June, the average used rate has increased to 14.17%, while the average new rate increased to 9.97%. This indicates a potential impact on future car purchases.

Vehicle Supply Variations

New-vehicle supply is 23 days higher year over year, and up 1% week over week, while used-vehicle  supply is down 6% year over year and rose slightly last week, according to vAuto Live Market View data.

Used-Vehicle Price Trends

Used-vehicle price trends continue to move lower. The average model year 2021 wholesale price declined 0.6% and the retail price declined 0.2% on the week.

Leading Indicators by Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive’s leading indicators are more negative in late June, with some impact evident from the CDK outages.

• Leads were down year over year on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book.
• In June, unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com were down year over year.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 1% year over year last week.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined substantially last week.