Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Sept. 4

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Sept. 4, 2024

The latest Cox Automotive Auto Market Report shows a notable decline in consumer spending volatility and stable unemployment levels, along with mixed consumer sentiment that rebounded slightly in August but later fell. Retail vehicle sales demonstrated positive growth, with new car sales up 8% and used car sales increasing by 4%. Furthermore, financing options improved, as 12.1% of rates fell below 3%, while average loan rates remained stable amidst changing bond yields. Both new- and used-vehicle supplies have tightened, and for the first time this year, used-car prices showed a marginal rise. Finally, Cox Automotive’s leading indicators depict a mixed outlook, with some year-over-year declines in leads but month-over-month improvements suggesting potential recovery.

Consumer Spending Volatility

Year over year, total spending trends have notably changed, turning negative in the second half of June and varying since then. This suggests that the growth of consumer spending has slowed down and remains inconsistent.

Unemployment Levels

The report indicates continuing claims at approximately 1.87 million on a national scale.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment rose by 0.3% in August but showed a decline at the end of the month. This instability echoes the volatile spending trends mentioned earlier.

Retail Vehicle Sales Trends

Both new and used car sales have seen a positive shift. New sales soared by 8%, reaching the highest level of the year, while used sales also strengthened, marking a 4% increase.

Low APR Financing

The proportion of rates below 3% rose to 12.1% in August, with the 0% APR demonstrating a higher rise year over year and a slight increase month over month compared to July.

Average Auto Loan Rates

Amidst fluctuating bond yields, auto loan rates have been relatively stable in August. The average rate for a used car loan stood at 13.92%, while a new-car loan was at 9.58%.

Vehicle Supply

New-vehicle supply has tightened over the past month, representing a 5-day increase year over year but a decrease compared to the previous month. Used-vehicle supply has similarly tightened, showing a noticeable decrease against last year.

Used-Car Prices

In the last week of August, average wholesale prices for model year 2021 cars rose by 0.3%, whereas retail prices climbed by 0.1%, marking the first weekly increase in 2024.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Leads: On Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, leads are down year over year in August, and leads are up compared to July on both sites.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer were down year over year in August for new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, but new leads were up for the month compared to July. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 10% year over year last week, with the trend in applications per dealer improving week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved last week, as completed appointments were down less than 1% year over year.