Wholesale Prices Continue Decline in First Half of July

Wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 1.7% in the first 15 days of July compared to the month of June. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 196.9, a 24.7% increase from July 2020.

Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices declined in each of the last two weeks for the largest weekly declines since the fall of 2020. The Three-Year-Old MMR Index, which represents the largest model year cohort at auction, experienced a 1.8% cumulative decrease over the last two weeks. Over the first 15 days of July, MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to current MMR, averaged 98.1%, which indicates that valuation models are modestly overstating market prices. The sales conversion rate declined in the first half of July relative to June and is now at a normal level for this time of year. Sales efficiency over the last 7 days was in line with the average sales efficiency in July 2019. The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used vehicle values will continue to see a similar amount of depreciation in the days ahead.

On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price declines in the first 15 days of July. Pickup trucks declined the most. After the declines, on a year-over-year basis, all segments remain up substantially with sports cars, pickups and vans outperforming the overall market, while the other major segments are underperforming the overall market.

Access the Mid-Month Update for the full report.

The complete suite of monthly MUVVI data for June will be released on Friday, August 6, 2021, the fifth business day of the month as regularly scheduled. If you have any questions regarding the Index, please contact the Cox Automotive Industry Insights team at Manheim.Data@coxautoinc.com.