Retail sales in May declined more than expected, and inflation pressures led to continued shifts in the pattern of spending. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were down compared with a year ago, but spending remains quite robust on a nominal basis. Consumers are spending more on gas and groceries but less on cars, electronics, appliances … Continued

The Fed raised the target for the Federal Funds Rate by three-quarters of a percentage point today as it becomes more aggressive in its quest to rein in inflation. The increase in the target rate was the largest in almost 28 years. The Fed has now increased the target rate by 1.5 percentage points and … Continued

Financial markets sold off Friday with the report on the Consumer Price Index showing inflation accelerating again in May. Inflation is also weighing on consumer attitudes as measures of consumer sentiment have shown further declines.  The gains in inflation were broad based, but energy, food, shelter and vehicles played outsized roles in the monthly acceleration. … Continued

The May employment report showed a slight slowing in job growth that exceeded expectations at 390,000 jobs created, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.6%. Labor force participation increased, and growth in average hourly earnings year over year slowed. Consistent with a strong labor market, continuing claims keep falling and are now at … Continued

Real GDP declined in the first quarter slightly worse than originally estimated, but mainly because of net exports and declining inventories. Consumer spending remained robust and improved in the latest estimate. Consumer spending slowed in April but remains strong. Income growth slowed, and the savings rate declined. The housing market saw further declining momentum in … Continued

COVID cases increased again last week and exceeded levels seen at the same time last year. However, severity indicators, like fatalities and ICU admissions, remain at or near pandemic lows. COVID cases combined with the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and a volatile stock market are negatively impacting consumer sentiment. Retail sales increased solidly, indicating … Continued

COVID cases increased again as Omicron subvariants push case numbers up to levels last seen in mid-February. Measures of consumer sentiment have shown declines so far in May, as inflation and stock market declines weigh on consumer attitudes. Inflation decelerated slightly in April, but rent and services saw gains. Consumer credit grew at an accelerated … Continued

The April employment report showed stable job growth at 428,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.6%. Labor force participation declined from what had been the highest level for the pandemic in March. Growth in average hourly earnings slowed. Consistent with a strong labor market, continuing claims keep falling and are … Continued

The Fed delivered on expectations today by raising the target rate for the Federal Funds Rate by half of a percentage point and announcing the plan to start reducing its balance sheet starting on June 1. The increase in the target rate was the largest in 22 years. The policy decision by the Fed Open … Continued

Real GDP declined in the first quarter but mainly because of net exports and declining inventories. Consumer spending remained robust. Consumer spending in March, in fact, accelerated and even showed growth on an inflation-adjusted basis over February and last year. Incomes are also growing at a healthy pace supported by every factor but unemployment benefits. … Continued