COVID-19 cases driven by the Omicron variant are at record levels that are more than triple the peak previously hit last January. The pace of growth is slowing, but the virus, inflation, the weather and stock market volatility have weighed on consumer sentiment. Inflation stood at its highest level in 40 years, but we may … Continued
Our team held the quarterly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index call last week. We reviewed the used-vehicle market performance through the final quarter of 2021 and provided our forward-looking view of the market into 2022. A key topic in the discussion, of course, was the elephant in the room: Has the recent run-up of used-vehicle … Continued
The December job report was mixed as it similarly was in November. Again, job creation was disappointing with just 199,000 new jobs, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% with some growth in the labor force. Tight labor supply is limiting job growth. Wages saw a stronger month-to-month growth pace, but, year over year, the … Continued
New daily COVID-19 cases increased week over week as cases remain elevated about where they have been for the last two weeks. The impact of the omicron variant in the U.S. has been limited so far. Jobless claims continue to decline to more normal levels as the job market heals. Consumer sentiment has improved slightly … Continued
The tightening of U.S. monetary policy is accelerating after the Fed’s eighth and final meeting in 2021. As expected, the Fed announced that tapering would accelerate and bond buying would end by March. This sets the stage for rate increases to begin soon thereafter as the economic priorities shift from a focus on job recovery … Continued
The trend in new daily COVID-19 cases kept rising last week as the seven-day average of daily cases was up and case levels are back to early October numbers. The most current view of consumer sentiment moved slightly higher for the week, and the initial reading for December from the University of Michigan registered an … Continued
While the number of COVID-19 daily new cases is increasing, the economy grew, consumers spent money, home sales rose, and jobless claims dropped to pre-pandemic levels. GDP revised up: The second estimate of third-quarter real GDP resulted in an upward revision to growth of 2.1% annualized from the first estimate of 2.0%. Personal consumption was … Continued
The trend in new daily COVID-19 cases accelerated higher last week, and consumer sentiment lost ground. Retail sales were much stronger than expected in October as consumers keep spending despite higher prices. Inflation did play a role in the spending, but even controlling for price increases, retail sales exceeded expectations. New construction trends were mixed … Continued
Inflation rose in October to the highest year-over-year level since October 1990. While the consumer credit expansion pace accelerated in September, auto loan originations slowed modestly in the third quarter from the record pace of originations in the second quarter. Auto loan performance deteriorated again in October and is starting to normalize from historically low … Continued
October saw an acceleration of job gains as the labor market is improving following the peak of the Delta variant wave and the end of the pandemic unemployment assistance in September. New-vehicle sales showed gains over September, which posted the lowest seasonal pace of sales. The used-vehicle retail market was flat and still slower than … Continued