The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues, and the vaccine rollout is accelerating. Improving conditions are leading to rollbacks of restrictions, and employment data are starting to reflect solid job gains as a result.  Jobs recovery resumes: February saw 379,000 new jobs – twice what was expected, triggering another tick down in the unemployment … Continued

We are past the effect of the severe winter weather a week ago. As a result, COVID-19 testing is growing again, and the new daily case trend is again on the rise. Still, it remains well below the case trend in January or early February.  Consumers spend: Consumer spending increased in January as incomes jumped with … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues, but winter weather impacted economic activity and vehicle sales over the past two weeks though housing strengthened. Retail sales rise: Retail sales jumped in January, supported by the $600 stimulus checks issued early in the month in the $900 billion stimulus package signed into law at … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Improving conditions are leading to rollbacks of restrictions, and economic activity and employment should improve as a result. For now, traditional jobless claims are seeing gradual declines, but pandemic assistance claims are growing, and 20.4 million people remain on some form of benefits. Joblessness remains high: … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Improving conditions are leading to rollbacks of restrictions. Economic activity and employment should improve as a result. Job gains small: January only saw meager gains in jobs, but the declining trend in jobless claims affirm that January likely represented the transition from the worst of the … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues, but new variants are raising concerns. The economy grew in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending slowed, savings grew, and consumer confidence improved. Economy grows: The first estimate of fourth quarter 2020 real GDP growth came in at 4.0% (annualized), less than the 4.2% expected. Based on … Continued

Little new information emerged from the Fed today as they issued their official statement following their first meeting of 2021. The biggest change in the official statement was acknowledging that “…  the pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months.” The Fed is clearly staying on course with its … Continued

The downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases continues. Hospitalizations and deaths are on the decline as well. The pandemic risk remains at the highest level for much of the country, but conditions should improve as the month ends. On the economic side, joblessness remains high but is not continuing to rise, consumer sentiment rose … Continued

We are now seeing a downward trend in new daily COVID-19 cases. The pandemic risk remains at the highest level for much of the country, but conditions should improve in coming weeks. The trailing data on jobless claims is tracking the rising COVID-19 case trend. Job losses for the week ending Jan. 9 were the … Continued

Last week saw continued growth in COVID-19 cases. We are likely to hit new records and an eventual peak in daily cases in the next seven to 10 days. The rise in COVID-19 cases in December resulted in job losses for the month, mostly in the service sector. More job losses are expected until we … Continued