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Key Trends of 2019 – Q3 Update

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive, provides an update on the Key Trends that, earlier in the year, were predicted to have the greatest impact on the automotive industry in 2019.   The Economy Economic growth has been revised slightly downward from 2.6% to 2.3% GDP for 2019 and is expected to be less than … Continued

Fed Rate Cut Unlikely to Help Average Car Buyer

The Fed officially cut the short-term rate policy by a quarter-point, citing slowing economic growth both globally and domestically. This was the third cut this year, so rate policy is back to the range we had in the spring of 2018 before the June 2018 increase. As in September, the decision was not unanimous, as two … Continued

Auto Market Weekly Summary

Economic growth slowed in the second quarter and is likely to be much slower in the back half of the year compared with the first half of the year. Tame inflation: Inflation has been tame, mainly as a result of lower prices for food and energy, but now some of the consumer surplus provided by … Continued

Auto Market Weekly Summary

The stock market failed to make it four straight weeks of gains as the UAW strike at GM, turmoil in the Middle East, floods in Texas, and global economic weakness collectively dampened moods. The Fed also made news every day, and, when the Fed has to take action, it’s not usually because things are looking … Continued

Fed Rate Cut Likely Won’t Influence Auto Loan Rates

As was widely expected, the Fed officially cut the short-term rate policy by a quarter point, so their rates are back to the range we had last August before the September 2018 increase. Citing global developments and muted inflation pressures, the Fed decided to cut rates even though there was dissension in the vote with … Continued

Higher Fuel Prices Could End Low Inflation

Brent crude futures increased 15% yesterday, which was one of the largest single-day jumps in history. The decline in Saudi production due to the Saturday attack on one of the world’s largest oil processing facilities amounts to an estimated 5% of the world’s oil supply. In the U.S., gas prices increased yesterday, but only $0.03 or … Continued

Auto Market Weekly Summary

The stock market kept its winning streak going for a third straight week, and again it was mainly related to rising hopes of progress with U.S.-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank beat the U.S. Fed to the rate-reduction punch by lowering its official rate by 10 basis point in the EU – it is now down … Continued

Auto Market Weekly Summary

Last week was a light one for new economic data, but the news on home sales this summer looks encouraging with the pace of sales finally seeing gains year over year as a result of lower mortgage rates. U.S.-China trade: The problem for last week was additional actions taken by China and threats from the U.S. … Continued

Annual Miles Driven Per Capita Plateaued Near 12,500, About 750 Miles Below All-Time Peak

Annual per capita miles driven in the United States has plateaued since the Great Recession. In the mid-2000s miles driven peaked at around 13,200 per capita (population aged 16+) then decreased every year between 2006 and 2014. A tepid, flat-income economic recovery combined with historically higher fuel prices significantly increased the real cost of operating … Continued

Auto Market Weekly Summary

Last week was a week filled with new economic data and financial market volatility. More than half of the week’s new data point to continued strength and even promising improving trends supportive of growth in the U.S. economy. The other half raises concern. Retail sales strong: Retail sales were strong in July, as Amazon Prime Day … Continued