Today’s Fed announcement was not about current rate levels, which remain near zero, but about expectations for the economy, guidance on rates long term, and elaboration on what it will take to shift away from low rates when the time comes. A key phrase in their announcement was “…the Committee will aim to achieve inflation … Continued

The trends for COVID-19 and consumer sentiment are encouraging, but the economy and the jobs recovery seem to have lost momentum from a stronger bounce back this spring and summer. The peak demand phase in the used car market seems to be behind us as August sales softened and prices are starting to come down. … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was seven weeks ago. Hospitalizations and deaths have been declining as well. However, outbreaks on college campuses caused daily cases to stop declining last week. The jobs recovery continues, but the pace of recovery is slowing as each week we lose jobs as well as see recovered jobs. … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was six weeks ago, and now hospitalizations and deaths are in decline as well. The decline has helped consumer sentiment improve modestly. Home sales are strong with low mortgage rates and favorable demographics. The jobs recovery continues, but the pace of recovery is slow and slowing as each … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was five weeks ago, and now hospitalizations and deaths are declining as well. The jobs recovery continues, but the country still has 14.8 million on unemployment benefits. Consumer sentiment has also been slowly improving for the last three weeks. New construction and existing home sales are now up … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was four weeks ago, and now hospitalizations are clearly declining as well. The jobs recovery is improving again, but the country still has 15.5 million on unemployment benefits. Consumer sentiment has also been slowly improving for the last two weeks. Retail sales growth slowed in July as auto … Continued

The peak in daily new COVID-19 cases was more than two weeks ago, and now it appears that hospitalizations and deaths are no longer growing either. It also appears that the jobs recovery may also be improving again, albeit at a slower pace than we enjoyed in the spring. The country now has 16.1 million … Continued

Daily new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are declining again, but the impact of higher risk and more restrictions on activity across much of the country has diminished economic activity resulting in an increase in people filing for unemployment benefits. One clear bright spot is the housing market, which is recovering strongly as demand is … Continued

As they did in June, the Fed today affirmed rate policy will remain where it is “…until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.” It is important to note that the Fed believes that the economy cannot recover until … Continued