Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 202.6, which is a decrease of 0.2% from a year ago and also lower than the February levels. The seasonal adjustment caused the index to decline for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose but not enough to account for the normal seasonal move. The non-adjusted price in March increased by 2.7% compared to February, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.4% year over year.

“March is typically the strongest month for wholesale markets, so it’s normal to see values rise. However, this year’s price increases were not enough to meet seasonal expectations, which is why our Index shows a decline,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “Used retail demand remained strong throughout March, with days’ supply ending at low levels, driving healthy activity at Manheim. While we initially thought appreciation trends peaked mid-month, we saw a reacceleration of weekly gains for wholesale values in the last week. Given the impact of tariffs, we may see stronger wholesale prices for the coming weeks as the market decides how to handle new tariffs at the border.”

In March, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw price increases for each week in the month, and price appreciation re-accelerated at month end, with values rising 0.3% in the last week. Over the previous four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index increased an aggregate of 1.2%, which is a bit muted relative to what is typically seen in March. Those same four weeks delivered an average increase of 2.3% between 2014 and 2019, indicating appreciation trends were weaker than usual.

Over the month, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 100.5%, meaning market prices moved above MMR values this month and were also higher against February levels. Compared to last year, valuation models were up by 0.6 percentage points (60 basis points) for MMR retention, but they are five-tenths of a point lower than 2019 levels for the same period. The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 65.8%, an increase of 6 full percentage points against last month and higher than we normally see at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.8% in March over the previous three years.

Major market segments saw mixed trends for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in March. Compared to March 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the second month in a row, increasing by 1.1%, with SUVs also performing better than the industry as they declined only 0.1% over the last year. Underperforming the industry, trucks fell by 0.9%, mid-size sedans were down 4.2%, and compact cars declined the most again, falling by 6.1% against last year. Compared to the previous month, the luxury segment performed best, moving higher by 0.4%, while SUVs and compact cars were also better than the industry overall, falling by 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Faring worse than the industry overall, trucks declined by 0.9% over the month, and mid-size sedans were down the most, falling 1.1%.

Looking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicles (EVs) experienced more depreciation than we had seen in the last few months as the EV share of all units sold at Manheim hit the highest level on record, at 2.7% of all units. EV values were down 2.3% against February 2025, while non-EVs declined by just 0.4%. For March 2025, EV values are now lower by 3.2% against March 2024, while non-EVs were lower by 0.9% year over year, a bit more than the overall industry average.

Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Were Up in March

Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in March were up 19.4% compared to February and higher year over year by 8%. Over the last four weeks, the average retail listing price for a used vehicle decreased by 2%.  

Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates March ended at 38 days’ supply, down eight days from 46 days at the end of February and down four days from March 2024 at 42 days.

New-vehicle sales in March increased by 10.7% compared to last year, and volume soared 29.9% from a weaker February as consumers in late March chose to buy now rather than wait, fearing that tariffs would raise prices in the future. The March sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 17.8 million, up 2.1 million from last year’s pace and higher than the 16.0 million level in February.

Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets increased 2.3% year over year in March, driven by an increase in rental fleet sales. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be up 15.1% from last year, a strong increase that pushed estimated retail SAAR of 15.2 million, up 20.4% from last year’s pace, and also higher than February’s estimated 12.8 million level. Fleet share was estimated to be 16.5%, down from last year’s 19.7% share.

Rental Risk Price and Mileage Results Were Mixed Against Last March

The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in March increased 4.5% year over year. Additionally, rental risk prices rose 3.4% compared to February, the largest monthly gain since March 2023. Average mileage for rental risk units in March (at 49,900 miles) fell 5.4% for the month against last year’s level, the lowest reading in March since 2020. For the month of March, the rental unit average mileage was 9.7% lower than in February 2025.

Measures of Consumer Confidence Declined in March

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined 7.2% in March, which was worse than expected; but February’s index was revised higher. Consumers’ views of both the present and the future declined, but the views of the future declined the most, to a level that was the lowest since 2013. Consumer confidence was down 9.9% year over year. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months declined modestly to the lowest level since April 2023. The sentiment index from the University of Michigan declined 11% in February to 57.0, which was lower than expected and marked a larger decline than the earlier reading at the beginning of the month. With the final monthly decline, the index is down 28% year over year, to the lowest level since November 2022. The underlying views of current conditions and future expectations declined, with expectations falling the most. Expectations for inflation in one year increased to 5% from 4.3%, and expectations for inflation in five years increased to 4.1% from 3.5%. Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles declined to the lowest level since November 2022 as views of prices deteriorated, but views of interest rates improved slightly. The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult declined 3.9% in March, adding to the 1.7% decline in February. The index ended the month up just 0.9% year over year. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of unleaded gas rose to $3.20 per gallon, up 10 cents in March from the end of February, which was down 9% year over year but up 4.5% year to date.

The next complete suite of monthly MUVVI data will be released on May 7, 2025.

For questions or to request data, please email manheim.data@coxautoinc.com. If you want updates about the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, as well as direct invitations to the quarterly call sent to you, please sign up for our Cox Automotive newsletter and select Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index quarterly calls.

Note: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was adjusted to improve accuracy and consistency across the data set as of the January 2023 data release. The starting point for the MUVVI was adjusted from January 1995 to January 1997. The index was then recalculated with January 1997 = 100, whereas prior reports had 1995 as the baseline of 100. All monthly and yearly percent changes since January 2015 are identical. Learn more about the decision to rebase the index.