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Cox Automotive Forecast: August U.S. Auto Sales Show Stability Amid Seasonal and Labor Day Boost

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Article Highlights

  1. August’s new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.4 million, up 0.1 million from last August’s 15.3 million pace but down from July’s robust 15.8 million level.
  2. Sales volume in August, boosted by extra selling days, is expected to rise 8.1% from one year ago and reach 1.445 million units, a 12.1% increase from July.
  3. August sales totals will include the long Labor Day holiday weekend, which could help lift sales volume to the highest monthly total of the year.

Updated, Sept. 6, 2024 – New-vehicle sales volumes increased month over month and year over year in August, as forecast by Cox Automotive. Year-over-year sales volumes last month are now estimated at 1.42 million, slightly lower than our team’s 1.44 million forecast. Indications are that fleet sales were notably lower year over year – down by more than 21%.  Fleet sales in August accounted for approximately 11.6% of total sales, according to Cox Automotive sources. A year ago, fleet accounted for more than 16% of sales. While fleet sales retreated, retail sales were a positive for the market in August, up 14% year over year. Overall, total sales in August were higher by more than 7% year over year and up by more than 11% compared to July. 

The good news on sales volume, however, as noted in our August forecast, was fueled by extra selling days and a holiday weekend. In fact, the seasonally adjusted sales pace in August, which accounts for the additional sales days, was lower both month over month and year over year despite the market gaining some momentum in the final weeks. The August SAAR is now estimated at 15.1 million, below both last month (15.3m) and well below the pace one year ago (15.8m). 

The low-15-million sales pace in August is just another sign of uncertainty in the U.S. market right now. Today, the Q3 Cox Automotive Dealers Sentiment Index was released, a survey of U.S. auto dealers that clearly shows the front-line of the U.S. auto business is feeling the pressure of a market wrestling with the uncertainty of a national election, expectations for interest rate cuts, and a market generally worn down by higher inflation. “Performing Below Expectations” continues to be a key theme, considering the lower unemployment rate and general wage growth. With the extra sales days and a holiday weekend, August absolutely was below expectations despite the higher volume. For a deeper dive into the market and what to expect for the fourth quarter, consider joining the Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, at 11 a.m. EDT.


ATLANTA, Aug. 28, 2024 – The forecast from Cox Automotive released today suggests that U.S. new-vehicle sales in August should remain relatively stable when adjusted for significant seasonality. In August, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to reach 15.4 million, higher than last August’s 15.3 million pace but down notably from July’s robust 15.8 million level.  The strong sales pace in July was partly fueled by a sales rebound following an industry-wide dealership software disruption that slowed the market in the second half of June.  

Sales volume in August, which will include deals completed during the Labor Day holiday weekend, is expected to rise more than 8% from last year and increase 12% from last month. In fact, August could potentially be the month with the highest sales volume of the year so far. However, significant seasonal adjustments are necessary to compare the market selling pace: This August has 28 selling days, three more than last month and one more than last year. August sales data will also include five weekends versus four last year.

Following the software outages in June and recovery in July, new-vehicle inventory was expected to normalize throughout August. As model year 2025 vehicles hit the market, several automakers reported that 40% or more of their current inventory on dealer lots consisted of MY25 vehicles. As automakers work to make room for the new model year, various financing deals are being offered, including options for 0% financing and up to $10,000 in customer bonuses for buyers choosing a new 2024 model.  The improved incentives and healthy inventory should support higher sales volume in August.

According to Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough: “The August new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish within the 15 to 16 million range as monthly sales have for nearly the last two years. Historically, the Labor Day timeframe has been one of the larger sales promotion periods for the industry – and that should boost volume this year. However, this monthly report will also benefit from 28 selling days, more than any other month this year, and the long holiday weekend, so higher volume is expected.”

August 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. August 2024 has 28 selling days, one more than last year and three more than last month.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com

Dara Hailes
470 658 0656
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com

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