Cox Automotive Forecast: November New-Vehicle Sales Pace Holds Steady as Market Appears Poised to End 2024 on a Strong Note

Updated, Dec. 4, 2024 – U.S. auto sales in November 2024 beat expectations, showcasing strong momentum as the year approaches its close. While initial forecasts anticipated a sales pace of 16.0 million with a volume of 1.32 million vehicles, the latest data suggests the industry is on track to hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million – the strongest pace in over three years.

Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted, “A post-election, consumer mindset shift – the move from ‘it’s better to wait’ to ‘better buy now’ – is likely driving this uptick in retail momentum.”

Robust incentives and discounts are playing a pivotal role in boosting sales as well. Incentive spending in October surged by 60% year over year, reaching its highest level since early 2021. November likely saw even deeper discounts, coupled with improved financing offers and rising inventories.

According to Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough, “I think the consumer may surprise us a bit in the coming months. There may be more pent-up demand than we imagined, as consumers put the national election behind them and take stock of the better loan rates, improved financing deals, and a lot more incentives.”

ATLANTA, Nov. 26, 2024 – New-vehicle sales for November are expected to maintain a steady seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million, consistent with the sales pace observed in October, according to the Cox Automotive forecast released today. This represents an increase from last November’s SAAR of 15.5 million.

However, the sales volume is expected to reach 1.32 million, a decline of 1.3% from October but a 6.6% increase from one year ago, reflecting the differences in the number of selling days compared to last month and a year ago. There are 26 selling days this month, one less than last month and one more than last year.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: “With the U.S. election now in the rearview mirror, we may see vehicle sales finish the year in a strong position. With less uncertainty in the market, consumer confidence is moving higher, which will likely increase consumer willingness to buy a new vehicle. Additionally, vehicle affordability is improving, thanks to higher incentives and falling auto loan rates, which increase consumers’ ability to buy.”

Sales Pace Continues to Reflect Improved New-Vehicle Inventory Levels and Higher Incentives

New-vehicle inventory volume topped 3.0 million units at the start of November for the first time since the pandemic, which is higher by more than 677,000 units compared to one year ago. Days’ supply climbed to 85 at the start of November, up two days from the revised start of October count and 10 days higher than in November 2023. Higher inventory levels are also pushing sales incentives higher, with new-vehicle sales incentives jumping to 7.7% of the average transaction price in October, marking the fifth consecutive month of higher incentives and the highest level since April 2021.

EV Sales Expected to Surge in November and December

The election has sparked much speculation about the potential effects of a new administration on the auto market, particularly concerning electric vehicles and emissions standards. Chesbrough noted, “We may see an increase in electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales over the next few months as buyers move to take advantage of discounts that may disappear in 2025. There is concern that federal tax credits for EVs and PHEVs may be reduced or eliminated when the new administration takes office. As a result, EV sales may experience some tailwinds, leading to robust activity through the end of the year.”

November 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

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