CAMIO
2025 Cox Automotive Market Insights and Outlook
Wednesday March 26, 2025
Reliable data and smart insights are crucial for navigating the ever-changing market conditions of the dynamic auto industry. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team collects, analyzes and shares the best information possible.
CAMIO 2025
The Cox Automotive Market Insights and Outlook (CAMIO) report provides the key takeaways from the 2024 data and what’s next in 2025. Additional content in the 2025 CAMIO includes the latest Car Buyer Journey Study, the quarterly Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index reports and the quarterly Kelley Blue Book electric vehicle sales reports.
A Look Back at 2024
Throughout much of 2024, the U.S. automobile market was held in check by the uncertainty of the national election unfolding and political rhetoric dominating the headlines. Who would run? Who would win? Who would hold a majority on Capitol Hill? How would the outcome impact the economy and Main Street, USA?
In early 2024, Cox Automotive surveyed consumers and dealers. The results revealed that 78% of respondents told Cox Automotive they expected the November election to influence their decision-making regarding a big-ticket purchase. Reacting to the results, Vanessa Ton, senior manager, Research and Market Intelligence, noted, “This research reminds us that elections breed uncertainty, and when big-ticket purchases like automobiles are on the line, uncertainty is the enemy.”
All things considered, market performance in 2024 was mostly positive. Many key metrics for the auto industry returned close to long-established norms after being disrupted by the global pandemic and the many manufacturing disruptions that followed. New-vehicle inventory fully recovered in 2024, returning close to pre-pandemic levels, and both sales volumes and incentives were on the rise as anticipated. Although new-vehicle prices remained higher compared to 2019, price inflation was mild last year, with transaction prices in December 2024 higher by just over 1% from year-earlier levels.
Last year was not without disruption, with a major cyberattack disrupting dealerships across the country in early summer. The outages impacted dealership management systems for roughly a month, but the ripple effect was felt well beyond; many transactions were completed the old-fashioned way, with paper, pens and fax machines. Sales were perhaps not lost, but many were certainly delayed.
The industry was back online and recovering by August, just as the Federal Reserve finally took the step of lowering rates in September, the first reduction in more than a year. Auto loan rates, which many dealers had indicated was the top factor holding back business, dropped by a full percentage point in the fourth quarter for new loans and half a point for used loans. The lower rates were more good news at the time, as the market was also feeling the positive effects of decreasing inflation, strong and stabilizing economic growth, and expectations for further rate cuts.
The 2024 election delivered clear results, thankfully, with a peaceful and timely transfer of power and the U.S. economy and auto market responding accordingly. With rates trending lower in Q4 and pent-up demand arriving at dealerships ready to buy, new- and used-vehicle sales ended the year on a high note, both well above 2023 levels. The new-vehicle sales pace of 16.8 million in December 2024 was the strongest level in more than three years.
What’s Next in 2025
Noting the auto market’s Q4 momentum, the Cox Automotive team went into 2025 expecting the market for new-vehicle sales to reach the highest level since 2019: 16.3 million units. The forecast for 2025 called for improving new-vehicle affordability, with credit availability expanding as loan portfolio performance improved. And that may still come to pass.
At the time of this report, however, and just weeks after the new administration took hold in the White House, the headlines were dominated by tariffs and trade wars. Tariffs were top of mind from the earliest days of the Trump presidency, with calls for new tariffs on North America beginning Feb. 4. Then delayed until March 4. They were enacted then, in early March – 25% across borders that supported free trade for 30 years – and were quickly rescinded on March 6. New target: April 2.
Will the Trump administration put tariffs in place and spark a global trade war? We certainly don’t know, but the rhetoric seems to suggest that’s the administration’s preferred direction. Unless it is not. From our seat, it is impossible to tell.
What we do know is this: Tariffs enacted across North America as proposed – depending on how long they last – could upend both the U.S. auto market and the larger economy. In early March, Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough noted, “Just as the industry seemed to be finding stable ground, new obstacles are thrown in place. Will tariffs be embraced? And for how long? That’s the industry’s big question right now. Higher prices and border disruptions could result in lower volume and upend vehicle pricing. Our forecast of 16.3 million new-vehicle sales in 2025, at least at this moment, is now in question.”
New-Vehicle Market
New-vehicle sales ended on a high note in 2024, which turned out to be a volatile year.
New-Vehicle Inventory Volume & Days’ Supply
New-Vehicle Average Transaction Prices
Used-Vehicle Market
The used-vehicle market in 2024 was characterized by tight inventory, stable pricing and strong demand, with a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels of activity.
A Market Driven by High Rates
Throughout 2024, vehicle affordability was influenced by a complex interplay of economic factors, including interest rates, vehicle prices, incentives and income growth.
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index
Wholesale Market
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) finished the year closest to our long-term average since 2019. The reposession rate returned to 2019 levels, while auto loan defaults are higher.
Service Lanes
Xtime service metrics continued moving in different directions in 2024, with service department revenue at U.S. franchised dealerships steadily increasing while service ticket volume declined.
Additional Content
Cox Automotive’s Car Buyer Journey Study
The annual Car Buyer Journey study from Cox Automotive examines several attributes related to vehicle buying in America and focuses specifically on new- and used-vehicle buyer satisfaction.
Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index (CADSI)
Derived from a quarterly survey that Cox Automotive issues to a representative sample of franchised and independent auto dealers from around the country, the Dealer Sentiment Index measures dealer perceptions on the automotive market, from sales and inventory to profit and pricing. Importantly, the Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index provides perspective on a wide range of key metrics, including sales, inventory, pricing, costs, and profits. The quarterly CADSI reports also focus on key factors holding back business.
Kelley Blue Book Electric Vehicle Sales Reports
This quarterly report from Kelley Blue Book provides estimated sales of new electric vehicles with a summary by brand and model.
The 2025 Cox Automotive Market Insights and Outlook (CAMIO) is one of the many tools we provide. We encourage you to regularly check the Cox Automotive Newsroom and the Auto Market Snapshot. Sign up for From the Newsroom, our biweekly newsletter, to receive the most comprehensive, timely data and insights possible, brought to you by the best team of analysts and experts in the industry.