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Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales in February Expected to Rebound After Slow January, 16.3 Million SAAR Anticipated
Monday February 24, 2025
Article Highlights
- February’s new-vehicle sales pace is expected to reach approximately 16.3 million, up 0.6 million from last February’s 15.7 million pace and an increase from January’s 15.6 million level.
- The sales volume is expected to reach 1.250 million in February, up 11.3% from last month’s total but down 0.3% from last February.
- The February sales pace is forecast to increase year over year for the sixth consecutive month, spurred on by buyers who delayed their purchases from January.
Updated, March 4, 2025 – February new-vehicle sales likely finished slightly below the Cox Automotive forecast, with volume close to 1.22 million, lower than the forecast of 1.25 million. The initial February SAAR – the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales, or sales pace – is now estimated at 16.0 million, ahead of January and the year-ago February pace, but the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team had been expecting a February pace closer to 16.3 million.
Initial projections suggest fleet sales were soft in February while retail sales held up reasonably well, even though consumer confidence fell notably in February as worries about the economy took hold. As Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noted, “The daily chaos from Washington has been negatively impacting consumer sentiment and likely contributing to lackluster consumer spending in February. The biggest worry I have for the spring continues to be the trend we’ve seen in interest rates, which moved higher in February.”
Consumer confidence is a key measure closely tied to auto sales: Lower consumer confidence readings are often associated with lower sales. With trade and tariffs dominating the media headlines through February, some shoppers likely decided to purchase before higher prices set in – a tailwind for the market – while others may have decided to put any big-ticket purchase on ice, choosing instead a wait-and-see approach, concerned about broader inflationary risks.
With the White House now choosing to flip the tariff switch – 25% on America’s biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada; and 20% on all imports from China – the economy, the auto market, and the American consumer are now motoring an uncharted road. How automakers and consumers will react is the great unknown. Cox Automotive is forecasting total new-vehicle sales in the U.S. to improve for the third straight year in 2025 and reach 16.3 million units, the best market since 2019. At this point, however, and pending how long the tariffs stay in place, all bets are off.
ATLANTA, Feb. 24, 2025 – After a slower-than-expected January, a modest rebound is anticipated when February’s new-vehicle sales are reported next week. Cox Automotive forecasts February’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, to improve to 16.3 million, up from January’s 15.6 million pace and an increase from last year’s 15.7 million level. February is forecast to be the sixth consecutive month with a year-over-year sales pace increase.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, new-vehicle sales volume is expected to decline just slightly from last year. However, February 2025 has one fewer selling day than February 2024, resulting in a stronger sales pace when adjusted.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said: “New-vehicle sales have remained relatively strong since the election, finishing 2024 at the highest pace recorded since spring 2021. January sales dropped off from December, however, as cold weather across much of the country likely caused some buyers to delay their purchase. In addition, California fires and the inauguration in January may have also kept some shoppers at home. Many of those buyers are likely to return this month, which will help lift the February sales pace.”
Cox Automotive is forecasting new-vehicle sales to improve modestly in 2025, reaching 16.3 million by year’s end, up from just over 16.0 million units in 2024. Positive economic growth coupled with improved buying conditions should lead to a near 2% gain.
Chesbrough noted: “Though we are still optimistic about market growth in 2025, policy changes regarding tariffs and battery electric vehicle credits by the new Trump administration could have significant negative effects on the current outlook.”
February 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
February has 24 selling days, one less than last month and one less than last year.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com
Dara Hailes
470 658 0656
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com