Cox Automotive Leaves 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Unchanged as September Volume Drops; Year-to-Date Sales Up Less Than 1% Compared to 2023

Updated, Oct. 3, 2024 – New-vehicle sales in September came in near 1.17 million, down 12.8% year over year and roughly in line with the Cox Automotive forecast of 1.19 million. Thanks to seasonal adjustments, the new-vehicle sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), was 15.8 million in September, lower than the forecast of 15.9 million but a healthy gain from last month’s 15.3 million pace and higher than the 2023 SAAR of 15.7 million. A key driver of the lower sales volume was fewer selling days: There were only 23 selling days last month, which is five fewer days than the previous month and three fewer than last year.  

As the Cox Automotive team noted during the Q3 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast call last week, the U.S. new-vehicle market continues to perform below expectations. Sales at the end of Q3 finished higher than the year-ago level, but considering the industry’s higher inventory levels and notably higher incentives, higher sales volumes might have been expected.  

As Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough noted, “Overall, sales volume and sales pace through the first nine months is up just a little from last year, less than 1%. We expect sales to continue to show mild improvement, and our forecast for the full year remains unchanged at 15.7 million vehicle sales. Recent interest rate cuts will have a positive impact on borrowing costs, and sales should see support as uncertainty around the election and monetary policy fades away by year’s end.”

ATLANTA, Sept. 25, 2024 – Gauging the true success of new-vehicle sales this month will be especially challenging due to the market calendar. New-vehicle sales in September are expected to tumble more than 16% from August and 11% from last September. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 15.9 million, up from August’s 15.1 million level and slightly higher than last September’s 15.8 million pace.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: “The September sales pace is expected to improve from a rather slow August, maintaining the trend of large swings we’ve witnessed this year. With the election season fully upon us, more volatility seems likely through the end of the year. However, the recent interest rate cut will help household finances, and automakers are being more aggressive with discounts, so we remain optimistic that new-vehicle sales could improve marginally through the final quarter of 2024.”  

The September new-vehicle sales data will be influenced heavily by the large differences in the number of selling days. There are only 23 selling days this September, five fewer than August’s 28 days and three fewer than last September. Significant statistical adjustments help make comparisons more accurate, but they are still challenging.

Healthy new-vehicle inventory and higher incentives are helping maintain sales. New-vehicle sales incentives have been increasing through 2024, with August incentives estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be at the highest level since the first half of 2021. New-vehicle transaction prices have also been under pressure, helping improve new-vehicle affordability. Both dynamics – higher incentive and continued price pressure – are expected to positively influence September’s sales volume.

September 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Honda, With a 10% Sales Gain in Q3, Holds Rank as a Top 5 Seller; Stellantis Struggles

New-vehicle sales volumes in Q3 are forecast by Cox Automotive to be lower by 2.1% year over year and also lower compared to the second quarter of 2024. Sales declines at GM, Toyota and Stellantis have led the market lower. Year-to-date New-vehicle sales are expected to end Q3 higher by less than 1%. Cox Automotive’s full-year forecast for new-vehicle sales remains unchanged at 15.7 million, higher year over year by less than 2%.

Added Chesbrough, “Honda is expected to see even more growth this quarter, thanks to another strong quarter of CRV and Accord sales. So far this year, Honda has gained nearly 1% market share and has moved up into the Top 5 in U.S. sales among the major automakers, knocking Stellantis down to No. 6.”

Q3 and Year-To-Date 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast¹

While the overall new-vehicle market is forecast to be slightly higher year over year at the end of Q3, the gains have mostly been on the fleet and leasing sides of the business. Retail purchases year-to-date in 2024 – vehicles bought with cash or via an auto loan and representing nearly 60% of all sales – are forecast to be lower by 4% compared to 2023. Fleet sales year to date in 2024 are tracking higher by about 7% year over year, while leasing is higher by 24%, thanks in large part to strong electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid lease offers.

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world’s largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com

Dara Hailes
470 658 0656
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com