Job growth in October slowed and was weaker than expected. Prior job numbers were revised down, and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level since the beginning of 2022 while wage inflation moderated slightly. The labor market is showing the impact of the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy. Financial markets cheered the result … Continued

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged today, at least as it relates to official short-term rate policy. We have now had two meetings with no change in rate policy, yet rates keep rising. The Fed is getting more restrictive higher rates while pretending to be patient. Despite no change in their policy, the … Continued

Economic growth for the third quarter accelerated and was much stronger than expected at 4.9%. Most factors moved to positive, with accelerating growth in consumer spending being a major driver of the growth in the quarter. Consistent with the quarter’s performance, consumer spending growth accelerated in September, but income growth slowed. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index … Continued

The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation

Retail sales were stronger than expected in September. While category performance was mixed, only clothing and home-related categories were down in the month compared to August. New construction trends were mixed again in September with permits down, starts up, multifamily weak, but single family more stable. Existing home sales declined again in September to the slowest … Continued

The Federal Reserve has new data to consider ahead of its end-of-October meeting, based on the most recent inflation report. Year-over-year inflation was unchanged in September, but core price inflation, which is more relevant to the Fed’s assessment, continues to decline on a year-over-year basis. Consumers are still tapping credit cards but taking out fewer … Continued

The video below is part of a biweekly Auto Market Report series focusing on data and insights that provide a holistic view of the auto industry. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Download this week’s presentation

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow the economy and, specifically, the strong labor market are looking less effective, and the bond market does not like the signal it sends for the direction of interest rates.  Job growth in September was much stronger than expected, and prior job numbers were revised up. The unemployment rate was … Continued

Economic growth for the second quarter was unrevised at 2.1%, but revisions to historical data caused last year to be weaker and the first quarter to be stronger. As a result, the second quarter growth rate represented a modest slowing, and consumer spending growth slowed substantially. Consumer spending growth decelerated in August, but income growth … Continued